New Mexico snowpacks in the red; dry and hot weather expected

By: Danielle Prokop
Source NM​

Snotel precipitation map evaluating how current snowpack in New Mexico river basins compare to the median snowpacks from 1991-2020. (Courtesy of the National Resources Conservation Service)

While historic snow fell across swamps and beaches in the Eastern United States in January, New Mexico’s snowpacks are looking high and dry at the beginning of February.

New Mexico had its hottest autumn ever, with October through December marking the warmest temperatures on average since 1895, said Tony Bergantino, the director at the Wyoming State Climate office, which collects water and temperature data for the Equality State.

Bergantino led the Intermountain West Drought and climate briefing on Tuesday hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its federal drought arm. He noted that in addition to the hotter temperatures, New Mexico snowpacks are well below their median size, which threatens rivers that rely on snow water.

Temperatures range anywhere from 11 to 22 degrees above average for this time of year, from mid-60s to high 70s around the state.

Conditions are hot and dry enough that the National Weather Service office in Albuquerque issued a red flag warning for Wednesday due to the potential fire danger over about a quarter of the state, covering much of the northeastern third. It’s the second this year, with the first issued on Jan. 4.

While there will be colder temperatures moving back in for eastern NM this weekend, snow or rain forecasts look slim, said Randall Hergert, a forecaster with the NWS in Albuquerque.
“There are no good signals for a good, beneficial storm to put us on the right track in these closing months of winter,” Hergert said.

Atmospheric patterns and currents in the Pacific Ocean, which dictate weather patterns, are currently in a La Niña cycle, meaning that New Mexico is forecast to have hotter and drier weather for at least the next three months.
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Warming from human caused-climate change exacerbates those natural trends, which is worsening drought, intensifying storms and wildfires in New Mexico.