Notes from Nagle

By Peter Nagle 6/30/2025

This is the July newsletter. We took June off to travel to the Northeast for my wife Joy’s daughter’s wedding. What a wonderful day! While there we visited with other family and friends in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Mass, including the Cape. it was a very fun trip!

So, how have things gone in the markets? Quite well actually. Equity markets are at historical highs. Bonds have held steady. Interest rates are largely unchanged. It sure seems time for the Fed to lower rates. The fear that Chmn. Powell has had is that the tariffs Pres. Trump introduced will re-accelerate inflation. There is a danger that could happen, and it’s too early to tell whether they will, but so far they have not. It’s less that 6 months though so vigilance is still the word around here. 

There are reasonable arguments both ways on this, and I won’t bore you with the details but it appears so far that the tariffs have not led to the end of the world as some of us feared. This is likely because the President wisely pulled well back from the extreme approach he initially took. If he had tried to force those extremely high tariffs on other countries, I think the markets would have gone in the opposite direction than they have. I think he figured that out and rapidly changed course. 

Looking forward, markets never go straight up so it seems reasonable that we’ll see a decent size correction sometime in the next 3-4 months. 10 - 15% is my guess. And they are scary when they happen. But this could actually present a good buying opportunity if it happens. So I would keep some powder dry for that probability. 

As I’ve said before, a balanced approach generally works best. I like annuities for a part of your portfolio - they’re guaranteed not to lose money, and they can either pay you for life, or build up in value. And they’re tax deferred! They have a lot of advantages for the right situation, which is what I help people figure out. Where they fit, they’re unbeatable. 

There’s a place for all kinds of investments in your portfolio. Diversification is a sound investing principle. But as we get older, investing conservatively becomes more and more important. Especially in these unprecedented times. 

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I provide financial advice to individuals in our Abiquiu community at no charge as a way of giving back. If you have questions in that area feel free to contact me. I’ll do the best I can to help you sort through the issues. 

Peter J Nagle
Thoughtful Income Advisory
Abiquiu, NM
505-423-5378 (mobile)
[email protected]