Notes from Nagle 09/06/2024

By Peter Nagle

​​As I noted last month, historically, stock markets tend to be volatile in September and October, which is to say they can be fairly negative. Then in November/ December there is often a year end rally. No idea if that will happen this year. It’s been pretty positive so far in 2024 so maybe we will defy history.  

What I do know is that, given where we were 3 years ago (the Pandemic), we have a very favorable economic climate now. For the 3 months ending on 8/31 consumer spending is up 4%, which is remarkable. Consumer Spending is 70% of our economy. Personal income statistics are also up. The jobs report comes out today, Friday, and that will have an impact, positive or negative, on markets depending on the number of jobs created. (“Notes” are written several days in advance of Jobs publication).

Inflation continues to decline. It’s at about 2.5% now, very close to the 2% Fed goal. Of course, inflation was over 9% at one point and the impact of that is still being felt. Just look at the price of pies at Bode’s - over 20 bucks! They’re hard to resist though! 

Interest rates will be lowered starting this month, and that will probably continue in Nov. and Dec. This is really great news for things like mortgage rates, which are coming down too. The so-called “soft landing” scenario of our economy is playing out very well so far. 

Then, of course, we have the Election on Nov 5th - that ought to be interesting! Personally I just hope we know who our new President will be, without question, on Nov 6th. Or shortly thereafter. Given the personalities involved, that’s not a given. 
 
What all this says is that if we do get weakness in markets in the next 2 months or so, it might be smart to buy your favorite equity investments on this weakness.


In any case, there are a lot of variables floating around out there this year, more than usual. Buckle your seat belts and come along for the ride!
 
(Peter J Nagle is a Financial Advisor with over 40 years experience. Any questions or comments can be directed to: [email protected].)